"Predictor of the Day" question...

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Message 21981 - Posted: 7 Aug 2006, 16:04:43 UTC

The predictors of the day are all listed on the home page. I seems that all the people who attain that distinction are members of teams. Are there no independents who arrive at the lowest energy point on their own? Or are there benfits of belonging to a team that increase a user's chances of finding the lowest energy structure? Just wondering.
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Message 21982 - Posted: 7 Aug 2006, 16:16:09 UTC

Yes, teams do seem to have an advantage. However, I remember one predictor of the day who was not a team member and only ran one P4 machine with a Target CPU Time of 3 hrs.

As far as being a team member, I don't really see the advantage as many independents run multiple machines as well. It's still a lucky draw. As far as how teams use their collective resources, I couldn't say.

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Message 21985 - Posted: 7 Aug 2006, 17:13:45 UTC
Last modified: 7 Aug 2006, 17:24:25 UTC

There is no advantage. We all have a random chance of achieving predictor of the day. Dr. Baker described it as a lottory. The more tickets you buy, the better your chances of winning... and so what you are observing is that a high percentage of the models completed are crunched by people that are on teams (which also tend to crunch 24hrs a day) and a comensurately high percentage of the best predictions are performed by people that are members of a team.

Individuals are more likely to only have a single machine, or only to crunch part of the day, or have a slower PC, and to be splitting their time amongst other projects... all of these things mean they produce a smaller number of finished models, and therefore have less lottery tickets in-hand on the big day that the winner is announced.
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Message 21987 - Posted: 7 Aug 2006, 18:07:24 UTC

Remind me not to attempt to answer questions until my coffee kicks in.
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Message 22021 - Posted: 8 Aug 2006, 8:00:41 UTC

...and now the Predictor of the Day seems to have stopped being updated altogether? Any reason for this?
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Message 22026 - Posted: 8 Aug 2006, 13:48:41 UTC

It's not strictly each and every day. It's really the best predictor for each type of work unit Rosetta is studying. So, generally they complete a few each week and announce the best predictions received at that time.
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Message 22029 - Posted: 8 Aug 2006, 15:06:56 UTC - in response to Message 22026.  

It's not strictly each and every day. It's really the best predictor for each type of work unit Rosetta is studying. So, generally they complete a few each week and announce the best predictions received at that time.



Thanks for the information.
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Message 22227 - Posted: 11 Aug 2006, 0:54:55 UTC

On a slightly off topic but related point, does anyone know what happened to the scatterplots showing people their results compared to other results for each protein? I miss those.
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Message 22232 - Posted: 11 Aug 2006, 1:48:04 UTC - in response to Message 22227.  

On a slightly off topic but related point, does anyone know what happened to the scatterplots showing people their results compared to other results for each protein? I miss those.


These plots need the RMSD value (as x axis). To determine the RMSD value the native structure is needed, which is not released (yet) for the CASP7 proteins.
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Message 22235 - Posted: 11 Aug 2006, 2:11:12 UTC - in response to Message 22227.  

On a slightly off topic but related point, does anyone know what happened to the scatterplots showing people their results compared to other results for each protein? I miss those.


You could plot just the lowest energy chart if RMSD is not available. But yes, they've mentioned that they intend to bring them back, but they found it took too much load on the servers in it's original implementation, so they've got to polish it up a bit before enabling it again.
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Message 22303 - Posted: 11 Aug 2006, 19:20:21 UTC

While we await the chart showing our predictions as compared to the others throughout the Rosetta community... here's another fun thing to tinker with. Display all of your predictions.
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Message 22304 - Posted: 11 Aug 2006, 19:25:29 UTC

Thanks all. I keep looking for my name in the "best predictor" announcement and it hasn't shown up yet but I just know that I'm second best on all of them. I just need graphic proof :)
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Message boards : Number crunching : "Predictor of the Day" question...



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